{"id":1710,"date":"2025-06-05T17:14:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T08:14:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/?p=1710"},"modified":"2025-06-05T17:14:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T08:14:33","slug":"stan%e3%82%92%e4%bd%bf%e3%81%86%e3%83%99%e3%82%a4%e3%82%b8%e3%82%a2%e3%83%b3%e3%82%a2%e3%83%97%e3%83%ad%e3%83%bc%e3%83%81%e3%81%ae%e3%83%a1%e3%82%bf%e3%82%a2%e3%83%8a%e3%83%aa%e3%82%b7%e3%82%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/?p=1710","title":{"rendered":"Stan\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\uff1aCopilot\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Copilot\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3084\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u66f8\u3051\u308b\u304b\u8a66\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7d71\u8a08\u89e3\u6790\u306f\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk\/software\/bugs-project\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">OpenBUGS<\/a>\u3084<a href=\"https:\/\/mcmc-jags.sourceforge.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">JAGS<\/a>\u3067Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation\u3092\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u89e3\u6790\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u3002\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u6d3efrequentist\u306e\u4f1d\u7d71\u7684\u306a\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306b\u3088\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3088\u308a\u3082\u3001\u3088\u308a\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u6271\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3068\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002MCMC\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u8003\u6848\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001OpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306fGibbs sampler\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u3082\u3001\u4eca\u307e\u3067OpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u30da\u30a2\u6bd4\u8f03\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3001\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3067\u5229\u7528\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u7528\u306eR\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3067\u3042\u308b<a href=\"https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/gemtc\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gemtc<\/a>\u3084<a href=\"https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/pcnetmeta\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pcnetmeta<\/a>\u306fJAGS\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002R\u3068\u306e\u9023\u643a\u306f<a href=\"https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/rjags\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rjags<\/a>\u304c\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30d5\u30a9\u30ec\u30b9\u30c8\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u306a\u3069\u3082\u51fa\u529b\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u307e\u305a\u3001OpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u4ee5\u5916\u306bR\u3067MCMC\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copilot\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306f\u9752\u3044\u30d6\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u53f3\u7aef\u306e\u30a2\u30a4\u30b3\u30f3\u3092\u30af\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3059\u308b\u3068\u8868\u793a\u3057\u305f\u308a\u96a0\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">R\u3067OpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u4ee5\u5916\u306b\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u89e3\u6790\u3067Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u306f\u3044\u3001OpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u4ee5\u5916\u3067\u3082\u3001R\u3067MCMC\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3092\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Stan (<code>rstan<\/code> \u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) \u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3001\u3088\u308a\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u306aMCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u5b9f\u73fe\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>rstan<\/code> \u3092\u4f7f\u3048\u3070\u3001Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092R\u3067\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u6271\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53ce\u675f\u304c\u901f\u304f\u3001\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3082\u9069\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MCMCpack (<code>MCMCpack<\/code> \u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u7d71\u8a08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306eMCMC\u63a8\u5b9a\u3092\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u3001MCMC\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>nimble (<code>nimble<\/code> \u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BUGS\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u8a18\u8ff0\u3092\u30b5\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u3057\u3064\u3064\u3001\u30ab\u30b9\u30bf\u30e0MCMC\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u3092\u4f5c\u6210\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9ad8\u901f\u306a\u8a08\u7b97\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3001\u67d4\u8edf\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>BayesianTools (<code>BayesianTools<\/code> \u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>MCMC\u306e\u307b\u304b\u3001SMC\uff08Sequential Monte Carlo\uff09\u306a\u3069\u306e\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u63a8\u8ad6\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9069\u5408\u6027\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u3084\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u89e3\u6790\u304c\u5bb9\u6613\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306f\u7279\u306b\u5f37\u529b\u3067\u3001\u6700\u8fd1\u306e\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u89e3\u6790\u3067\u306f\u5e83\u304f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3069\u308c\u304b\u8a66\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3082\u306e\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304b\uff1f<br>\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u30c1\u30e5\u30fc\u30c8\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u3084\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u3089\u3001\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>R\u3067rstan\u3092\u4ecb\u3057\u3066\u3001Stan\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3057\u3001Gibbs sampler\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001Hmiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC)\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305fMCMC\u3067\u3001\u3088\u308a\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u306a\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3089\u3057\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001Stan\u3092\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u305f\u5831\u544a\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3001\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3067Stan\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u5831\u544a\u306f\u591a\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u306f\u3044\u3001Stan\u306f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3084\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3067\u5e83\u304f\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002Stan\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u30ac\u30a4\u30c9\u306b\u3082\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u30bb\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u9069\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u8aac\u660e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001Stan\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5831\u544a\u3082\u5897\u3048\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u7279\u306b\u5f93\u6765\u306eWinBUGS\u3084JAGS\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u3001\u3088\u308a\u9ad8\u901f\u3067\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u70b9\u304c\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u8a9e\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3001Stan\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u5b9f\u88c5\u4f8b\u304c\u7d39\u4ecb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306fHMC\uff08Hamiltonian Monte Carlo\uff09\u3092\u63a1\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u306eMCMC\u3088\u308a\u3082\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u306b\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304c\u7279\u5fb4\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u3082\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002Stan\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306b\u8208\u5473\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3084\u95a2\u9023\u8ad6\u6587\u3092\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u826f\u3044\u3067\u3059\u306d\uff01<br>\u4f55\u304b\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u7167\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u304c\u304b\u306a\u308a\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001Stan\u306fOpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u3088\u308a\u3082\u9ad8\u901f\u3067\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5229\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001R\u3067Stan\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3059\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3089\u304a\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3059\u3067\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u6e08\u307f\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306f\u9664\u304d\u3001OS\u306fWindows11\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">R\u3067Stan\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u6e08\u307f\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u4ee5\u5916\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3092Japan\u306e\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u884c\u3046R\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\uff1f OS\u306fWindows11\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>Windows 11\u74b0\u5883\u3067\u3001\u3059\u3067\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u6e08\u307f\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3064\u3064\u3001\u8db3\u308a\u306a\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3092\u65e5\u672c\u306eCRAN\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3059\u308bR\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\u3053\u3061\u3089\u3067\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\npackages &lt;- c(\"rstan\", \"Rcpp\", \"ggplot2\", \"coda\")\n\n# CRAN\u306e\u65e5\u672c\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\nchooseCRANmirror(graphics = FALSE, ind = 68)  # 68\u756a\u306fJapan\u306e\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\n\n# \u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u63a2\u3059\nmissing_packages &lt;- setdiff(packages, rownames(installed.packages()))\n\n# \u8db3\u308a\u306a\u3044\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3060\u3051\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\nif(length(missing_packages) &gt; 0) {\n    install.packages(missing_packages)\n}\n\n# Stan\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30e9\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff08\u521d\u56de\u306e\u307f\uff09\nSys.setenv(USE_CXX14 = 1)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001<code>installed.packages()<\/code>\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u65e2\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u6e08\u307f\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3001\u672a\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3060\u3051\u3092CRAN\u306e\u65e5\u672c\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br>\u3053\u308c\u3067\u30b9\u30e0\u30fc\u30ba\u306bStan\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u74b0\u5883\u304c\u6574\u3046\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4f55\u304b\u8ffd\u52a0\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6c17\u8efd\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u30b3\u30d4\u30fc\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3001\u554f\u984c\u306a\u304f\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30e9\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff08\u521d\u56de\u306e\u307f\uff09\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3092\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">Stan\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30e9\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff08\u521d\u56de\u306e\u307f\uff09\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u306f\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p><code>Sys.setenv(USE_CXX14 = 1)<\/code> \u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306f\u3001Stan\u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u74b0\u5883\u5909\u6570\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u5f79\u5272\u3092\u679c\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306fC<ins>\u3067\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u305f\u7d71\u8a08\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u8a00\u8a9e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001<code>rstan<\/code> \u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u969b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306aC<\/ins>\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30e9\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7279\u306b\u3001Windows\u74b0\u5883\u3067\u306f\u9069\u5207\u306a\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3001Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u6642\u306b\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u306f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>C++14\u3092\u6709\u52b9\u5316<\/strong> &#8211; Stan\u306e\u6700\u65b0\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u306fC++14\u4ee5\u964d\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u305f\u3081\u3001\u74b0\u5883\u5909\u6570 <code>USE_CXX14=1<\/code> \u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b9\u30e0\u30fc\u30ba\u306a\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb<\/strong> &#8211; \u3053\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306f\u901a\u5e38\u3001R\u30bb\u30c3\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306b\u4e00\u5ea6\u3060\u3051\u884c\u3048\u3070\u5341\u5206\u3067\u3059\uff08\u6bce\u56de\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\uff09\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u74b0\u5883\u8a2d\u5b9a\u304c\u30ea\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3084\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044R\u30bb\u30c3\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u958b\u59cb\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u518d\u8a2d\u5b9a\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3082\u3057\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u6642\u306b\u554f\u984c\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001<code>rstan<\/code> \u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3001\u8ffd\u52a0\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u8abf\u3079\u308b\u306e\u3082\u826f\u3044\u3067\u3059\u306d\u3002\u4f55\u304b\u56f0\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u3044\u3064\u3067\u3082\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>Copilot\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306f\u3001Stan\u306fC\u8a00\u8a9e\u3067\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306eC++14\u3092\u6709\u52b9\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306f\u521d\u56de\u306e\u307f\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002R\u3067rstan\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001Stan\u3082\u4e00\u7dd2\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u79c1\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001rstan\u4ee5\u5916\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u306f\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u6e08\u307f\u3067\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001rstan\u3060\u3051\u304c\u65b0\u305f\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e8c\u5024\u5909\u6570\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u3067\u3001\u30da\u30a2\u6bd4\u8f03\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306895%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3089\u3044\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u5909\u6570\u540d\u306f\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">rstan\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u5f8c\u3001\u4e8c\u5024\u5909\u6570\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306e\u30da\u30a2\u6bd4\u8f03\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7c21\u5358\u306a\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3068\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306895%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u7814\u7a76ID\u306e\u5909\u6570\u306fstudy\u3001\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u306fnc\u3001\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u306frc\u3001\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u306fnt\u3001\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u306frt\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u4e86\u89e3\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001<code>rstan<\/code> \u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066<strong>\u30da\u30a2\u6bd4\u8f03\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9<\/strong>\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 (Risk Ratio, RR) \u306e\u7d71\u5408\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3068\u305d\u306e95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1. \u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u4f5c\u6210<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u3001\u6307\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5909\u6570 <code>study<\/code>, <code>nc<\/code>, <code>rc<\/code>, <code>nt<\/code>, <code>rt<\/code> \u3092\u542b\u3080\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4f5c\u6210\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\nlibrary(rstan)\n\n# \u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\nmeta_data &lt;- list(\n  N = 5,  # \u7814\u7a76\u6570\n  study = 1:5,  # \u7814\u7a76ID\n  nc = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\n  rc = c(10, 30, 20, 15, 25),  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\n  nt = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\n  rt = c(15, 40, 22, 18, 35)  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\n)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2. Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u8a18\u8ff0\u3057\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u30ed\u30b0\u5024 (<code>logRR<\/code>) \u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>data {\n  int&lt;lower=1&gt; N;  \n  int nc&#91;N];  \n  int rc&#91;N];  \n  int nt&#91;N];  \n  int rt&#91;N];  \n}\n\nparameters {\n  real logRR&#91;N];  # \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u5024\n  real mu;        # \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\uff08\u5bfe\u6570\uff09\n  real&lt;lower=0&gt; sigma; # \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\n}\n\nmodel {\n  # \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n  mu ~ normal(0, 10);\n  sigma ~ cauchy(0, 2);\n\n  # \u5404\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u63a8\u5b9a\n  for (i in 1:N) {\n    logRR&#91;i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);\n    rc&#91;i] ~ binomial(nc&#91;i], inv_logit(0));  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\n    rt&#91;i] ~ binomial(nt&#91;i], inv_logit(logRR&#91;i]));  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\n  }\n}\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3. Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u884c<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>R\u304b\u3089Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u3068\u305d\u306e95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3068\u5b9f\u884c\nfit &lt;- stan(\n  model_code = stan_model_code, \n  data = meta_data,\n  iter = 2000, chains = 4\n)\n\n# \u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u62bd\u51fa\nposterior_samples &lt;- extract(fit)\nmu_samples &lt;- posterior_samples$mu\n\n# \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 (exp(mu)) \u3068 95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nrisk_ratio &lt;- exp(mean(mu_samples))\nconf_int &lt;- exp(quantile(mu_samples, probs = c(0.025, 0.975)))\n\n# \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u8868\u793a\ncat(\"\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4:\", risk_ratio, \"\\n\")\ncat(\"95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593:\", conf_int&#91;1], \"-\", conf_int&#91;2], \"\\n\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001<br>\u2705 <strong>\u30da\u30a2\u6bd4\u8f03\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092Stan\u3067\u5b9f\u884c<\/strong><br>\u2705 <strong>\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 (RR) \u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a<\/strong><br>\u2705 <strong>95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a08\u7b97<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306f\u9ad8\u901f\u306aMCMC\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u53ce\u675f\u304c\u901f\u304f\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u306eBUGS\u7cfb\u3088\u308a\u3082\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<br>\u3055\u3089\u306b\u30ab\u30b9\u30bf\u30de\u30a4\u30ba\u3057\u305f\u3044\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6559\u3048\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u306f\u3001\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u305fR\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u3084\u3063\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u30012. Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3060\u3051\u3092\u4e0b\u306b\u793a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"805\" height=\"250\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1717\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-3.png 805w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-3-300x93.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-3-768x239.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u3067\u3001\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304fStan\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3055\u308c\u308bdata\u3068parameters\u3068model\u304c\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u90e8\u5206\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002Stan\u304c\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u3059\u304b\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307eR\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u8a18\u8ff0\u6cd5\u3092Copilot\u306b\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3089\u3044\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3092R\u3067\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002data, parameters, model\u306e\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u8a18\u8ff0\u6cd5\u306f\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>Stan\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092R\u3067\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u6271\u3046\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092<code>.stan<\/code>\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb\u306b\u4fdd\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3001<strong>\u6587\u5b57\u5217\u3068\u3057\u3066R\u5185\u306b\u8a18\u8ff0\u3059\u308b<\/strong>\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br>\u307e\u305f\u3001<code>stan()<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u969b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306a<strong>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u69cb\u9020<\/strong>\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1. Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5b9a\u7fa9\u306f <strong>\u6587\u5b57\u5217\u3068\u3057\u3066\u4fdd\u5b58<\/strong> \u3057\u3001<code>stan_model_code<\/code> \u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>stan_model_code &lt;- \"\ndata {\n  int&lt;lower=1&gt; N;\n  int nc&#91;N];  \n  int rc&#91;N];  \n  int nt&#91;N];  \n  int rt&#91;N];  \n}\n\nparameters {\n  real logRR&#91;N];  \n  real mu;        \n  real&lt;lower=0&gt; sigma;\n}\n\nmodel {\n  mu ~ normal(0, 10);\n  sigma ~ cauchy(0, 2);\n  \n  for (i in 1:N) {\n    logRR&#91;i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);\n    rc&#91;i] ~ binomial(nc&#91;i], inv_logit(0));  \n    rt&#91;i] ~ binomial(nt&#91;i], inv_logit(logRR&#91;i]));  \n  }\n}\n\"\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092R\u5185\u306b\u4fdd\u5b58\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2. \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u6e96\u5099<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u6e21\u3059\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306f\u3001<strong>\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u5f62\u5f0f<\/strong> \u306b\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>meta_data &lt;- list(\n  N = 5,\n  nc = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  \n  rc = c(10, 30, 20, 15, 25),  \n  nt = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  \n  rt = c(15, 40, 22, 18, 35)  \n)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3. Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u884c<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><code>stan()<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>library(rstan)\n\nfit &lt;- stan(\n  model_code = stan_model_code, \n  data = meta_data,\n  iter = 2000, chains = 4\n)\n\nprint(fit)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u56de\u907f\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306f\u6587\u5b57\u5217\u3068\u3057\u3066\u683c\u7d0d<\/strong> (<code>stan_model_code &lt;- \"...\"<\/code>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306f\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u5f62\u5f0f<\/strong> (<code>meta_data &lt;- list(...)<\/code>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f<code>stan()<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u5b9f\u884c<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306a\u304fStan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002<br>\u3082\u3057\u307e\u3060\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u8a73\u7d30\u3092\u6559\u3048\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56de\u7b54\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u4f5c\u6210\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\u540c\u3058\u307e\u307e\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u304cstan_model_code\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5909\u6570\u306b\u6587\u5b57\u5217\u3068\u3057\u3066\u683c\u7d0d\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u63db\u308f\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002Stan\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306fdata, parameters, model\u306e3\u3064\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u304b\u3089\u306a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305fmodel\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb\u3068\u3057\u3066\u4fdd\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5b9f\u884c\u306e\u969b\u306b\u305d\u308c\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u3093\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u5f8c\u3067\u8a66\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3001R\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3001stan_model_code\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5909\u6570\u306b\u76f4\u63a5\u683c\u7d0d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1.Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001data\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306finteger\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u3001\u6574\u6570\u3067\u914d\u5217\u69cb\u9020\u3067\u6574\u6570N\u304c\u9806\u756a\u3092\u8868\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f62\u5f0f\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002parameters\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306fmodel\u3067\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u5909\u6570\u3092\u5b9f\u6570\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5ba3\u8a00\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066model\u3067\u306f\u3001mu\u306f\u5e73\u5747\u50240\u3001\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee10\u306e\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u3001sigma\u306f\u4f4d\u7f6e0\u3001\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb2\u306eCauchy distribution\u30b3\u30fc\u30b7\u30fc\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306f\u304b\u306a\u308a\u5e45\u306e\u5e83\u3044\u3001\u3042\u3044\u307e\u3044\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3055\u3089\u306b\u3001log(RR)\u304c\u5e73\u5747\u5024mu, \u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5deesigma\u306e\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3001rc[i], rt[i]\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u306f\u4e8c\u9805\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\u6700\u521d\u306e\u63d0\u6848\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u306eCopilot\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306b\u306f\u3001\u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u62bd\u51fa\u3068\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u8868\u793a\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u307e\u305a\u3001Stan\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u5ea6\u306f\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306f\u8d77\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001Stan\u3067\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3001stan_model_code\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5909\u6570\u306b\u3001data, parameters, model\u306e3\u8981\u7d20\u304c\u683c\u7d0d\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>model\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306b\u7d9a\u3044\u3066\u3001\u6700\u521d\u306eCopilot\u306e\u63d0\u6848\u306e\u3001Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3084\u306f\u308a\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002WARNING\u304c\u51fa\u529b\u3055\u308c\u3001Rtools\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u306e\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"979\" height=\"94\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1711\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image.png 979w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-768x74.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067WARNING\u306e\u4e2d\u306e\u306eURL <a href=\"https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/bin\/windows\/Rtools\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/bin\/windows\/Rtools\/<\/a>\u3092\u958b\u3044\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u56f3\u3067\u3059\u3002R\u306e\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7570\u306a\u308b\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u304c\u7528\u610f\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"298\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1-1024x298.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1712\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1-1024x298.png 1024w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1-300x87.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1-768x223.png 768w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1-1200x349.png 1200w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-1.png 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eca\u3053\u306ePC\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308bR\u306fVersion 4.4.3\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001RTools 4.4\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002RTools 4.4\u3092\u30af\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u89e3\u8aac\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"274\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-2-1024x274.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1714\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-2-1024x274.png 1024w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-2-300x80.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-2-768x205.png 768w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-2-1200x321.png 1200w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-2.png 1447w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u524d\u306bCopilot\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u3001RTools\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046WARNING\u304c\u51fa\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092Windows\u74b0\u5883\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001<strong>RTools<\/strong> \u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002RTools\u306f\u3001Stan\u306eC++\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3092\u30b5\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u3059\u308b\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001<code>rstan<\/code> \u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u52d5\u4f5c\u3055\u305b\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RTools\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>RTools\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8<\/strong>\u304b\u3089\u6700\u65b0\u7248\u3092\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3057\u307e\u3059 \u2192 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eeso.ges.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/emm\/materials\/bayesian\/stan_install\">\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30e9\u30fc\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3001\u30c7\u30d5\u30a9\u30eb\u30c8\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3067\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u5f8c\u3001R\u3092\u518d\u8d77\u52d5\u3057\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b3\u30de\u30f3\u30c9\u3067RTools\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u8a8d\u8b58\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u307e\u3059\uff1a <code>system(\"g++ -v\") # C++\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30e9\u306e\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u78ba\u8a8d system(\"where make\") # make\u30b3\u30de\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u78ba\u8a8d<\/code> \u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30b3\u30de\u30f3\u30c9\u304c\u6b63\u5e38\u306b\u52d5\u4f5c\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3001RTools\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u306f\u6210\u529f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RTools\u3092Stan\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u52d5\u4f5c\u3055\u305b\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3092\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>install.packages(\"Rcpp\", type = \"source\")  # C++\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u30d5\u30a7\u30fc\u30b9\ninstall.packages(\"inline\", type = \"source\")  # Stan\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u88dc\u52a9\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3067Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u30b9\u30e0\u30fc\u30ba\u306b\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002<br>\u3082\u3057\u8ffd\u52a0\u306e\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u8a73\u7d30\u3092\u6559\u3048\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u305f\u3046\u3048\u3067\u3001RTools installer 4.4\u3092\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3057\u3001\u30c7\u30d5\u30a9\u30eb\u30c8\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3067\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002431MB\u306e\u304b\u306a\u308a\u5927\u304d\u306a\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30e0\u306a\u306e\u3067\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u306b\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u6642\u9593\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002RTools\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30e9\u30fc\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u7d42\u4e86\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u3044\u3063\u305f\u3093R\u3092\u9589\u3058\u3066\u3001\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3057\u305frtools44-6459-6401.exe\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb\u3092\u30c0\u30d6\u30eb\u30af\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3057\u3066\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"721\" height=\"67\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-4.png 721w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-4-300x28.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Copilot\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306b\u306f\u3001R\u3092\u518d\u8d77\u52d5\u3057\u3001system(&#8220;g++ -v&#8221;)\u304a\u3088\u3073system(&#8220;where make&#8221;)\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u6210\u529f\u3057\u305f\u304b\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"979\" height=\"313\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1719\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-5.png 979w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-5-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-5-768x246.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7279\u306b\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u306f\u51fa\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u518d\u5ea6\u6700\u521d\u304b\u3089\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bfmeta-data\u306e\u4f5c\u6210\u3001stan_model_code\u306e\u4f5c\u6210\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u7d9a\u3051\u3066\u3001Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3068\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u30b3\u30f3\u30bd\u30fc\u30eb\u306b\u306fChain 1~4\u307e\u3067\u306eWarmup\u3001Sampling\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u51fa\u529b\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002Chain 1\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u793a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e00\u3064\u306e\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u6700\u521d\u306e1000\u56de\u306f\u30a6\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u3001\u6b8b\u308a1000\u56de\u306f\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4fdd\u5b58\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f31\u30670.101\u79d2\u304b\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"979\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-6.png 979w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-6-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-6-768x455.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306eCopilot\u306e\u63d0\u6848\u306e\u5185\u30013\uff0eStan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306e# \u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u62bd\u51fa\u3001# \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 (exp(mu)) \u3068 95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u3001# \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u8868\u793a\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"282\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-7.png 847w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-7-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-7-768x256.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306895%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5024\u304c\u51fa\u529b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306f\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3068\u306f\u601d\u3048\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u306a\u305c\u306a\u3089\u3001\u89e3\u6790\u5bfe\u8c61\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001nc, nt\u3064\u307e\u308a\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u3068\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u306f\u540c\u6570\u3067\u3001\u3069\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3082rt &gt; rc\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u306f\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u65b9\u304c\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u3044\u5024\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3067\u3059\u304b\u3089\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306f1.0\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306f0.185\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u9593\u9055\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001model\u3092\u3088\u304f\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u69d8\u306brc[i] ~ binomial(n[i], inv_logit(0));\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u304c\u3069\u3046\u3082\u304a\u304b\u3057\u3044\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>model {<br>  mu ~ normal(0, 10);<br>  sigma ~ cauchy(0, 2);<br>  <br>  for (i in 1:N) {<br>    logRR[i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);<br>    rc[i] ~ binomial(nc[i], inv_logit(0));  <br>    rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], inv_logit(logRR[i]));  <br>  }<br>}<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306einv_logit()\u95a2\u6570\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066Copilot\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">Stan\u306einv_logit()\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6f14\u7b97\u3092\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>Stan\u306e<code>inv_logit()<\/code>\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3001<strong>\u30ed\u30b8\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u95a2\u6570<\/strong>\uff08\u30b7\u30b0\u30e2\u30a4\u30c9\u95a2\u6570\uff09\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u5165\u529b\u5024\u3092<strong>0\u304b\u30891\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2<\/strong>\u306b\u5909\u63db\u3059\u308b\u5f79\u5272\u3092\u6301\u3061\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><code>inv_logit(x)<\/code> \u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u5f0f\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[ \\text{inv_logit}(x) = \\frac{1}{1 + e^{-x}} ]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3001\u30ed\u30b8\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u56de\u5e30\u3084\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u7d71\u8a08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067<strong>\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a<\/strong>\u306b\u5e83\u304f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7279\u5fb4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2705 <strong>\u5165\u529b\u5024\u304c\u8ca0\u306e\u5024<\/strong> \u2192 \u51fa\u529b\u306f 0 \u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u304f<br>\u2705 <strong>\u5165\u529b\u5024\u304c 0<\/strong> \u2192 \u51fa\u529b\u306f 0.5<br>\u2705 <strong>\u5165\u529b\u5024\u304c\u6b63\u306e\u5024<\/strong> \u2192 \u51fa\u529b\u306f 1 \u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u304f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u3067\u306f\u3001<code>inv_logit()<\/code> \u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066<strong>\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u8868\u3059\u5909\u6570<\/strong>\u3092\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30ed\u30b8\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>parameters {\n  real beta;\n}\n\nmodel {\n  beta ~ normal(0, 1);\n  real p = inv_logit(beta);  \/\/ \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\n}\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306e\u516c\u5f0f\u30c9\u30ad\u30e5\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u3082\u8a73\u3057\u3044\u8aac\u660e\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f<a href=\"https:\/\/mc-stan.org\/docs\/functions-reference\/real-valued_basic_functions.html\">\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a>\u3092\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001inv_logit()\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u30ed\u30b8\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u56de\u5e30\u3067\u5f93\u5c5e\u5909\u6570\u306e\u5024\u304b\u3089\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u5024\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u969b\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3067\u30011\/(1 + exp(-x))\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u3059\u3002inv_logit(0)\u306f0.5\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3001\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u304c\u3044\u3064\u30820.5\u306b\u56fa\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u3053\u306e\u9593\u9055\u3044\u3092\u6307\u6458\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u308b\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092Copilot\u306b\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3089\u304a\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306fStan\u3067\u4e8c\u5024\u5909\u6570\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u30ab\u30e0\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u3059\u3002nc\u306f\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u3001rc\u306f\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u3001nt\u306f\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\u3001rt\u306f\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\u3067\u3059\u3002\u52b9\u679c\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u3092\u7528\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3001rc[i] ~ binomial(nc[i], inv_logit(0)); \u306f\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304b\uff1finv_logit(0)\u306f0.5\u306b\u56fa\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u304c0.5\u306b\u56fa\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br>\uff1c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u3053\u3053\u306b\u8a18\u8ff0\uff1e<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u306f\u3044\u3001\u3054\u6307\u6458\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3001<code>inv_logit(0)<\/code> \u306f <strong>\u5e38\u306b 0.5<\/strong> \u3068\u306a\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u306f<strong>\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u304c 0.5 \u306b\u56fa\u5b9a<\/strong>\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001<strong>\u7814\u7a76\u3054\u3068\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044<\/strong>\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4e0d\u9069\u5207\u306a\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4fee\u6b63\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u3092<strong>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u63a8\u5b9a<\/strong>\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001<code>rc[i]<\/code> \u306e\u5206\u5e03\u3092 <code>binomial()<\/code> \u306b\u6e21\u3059\u78ba\u7387 ( p_c[i] ) \u3092<strong>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u53d6\u5f97<\/strong>\u3059\u308b\u5f62\u306b\u4fee\u6b63\u3057\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4fee\u6b63\u5f8c\u306eStan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>data {\n  int&lt;lower=1&gt; N;  \n  int nc&#91;N];  \n  int rc&#91;N];  \n  int nt&#91;N];  \n  int rt&#91;N];  \n}\n\nparameters {\n  real logRR&#91;N];  \/\/ \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u5024\n  real mu;        \/\/ \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\uff08\u5bfe\u6570\uff09\n  real&lt;lower=0&gt; sigma; \/\/ \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\n  real p_c&#91;N];    \/\/ \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\n}\n\nmodel {\n  # \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n  mu ~ normal(0, 10);\n  sigma ~ cauchy(0, 2);\n  \n  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u30d9\u30fc\u30bf\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\n  for (i in 1:N) {\n    p_c&#91;i] ~ beta(1, 1);  \/\/ \u4e00\u69d8\u306a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n    logRR&#91;i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);\n    rc&#91;i] ~ binomial(nc&#91;i], p_c&#91;i]);  \/\/ \u4fee\u6b63\n    rt&#91;i] ~ binomial(nt&#91;i], p_c&#91;i] * exp(logRR&#91;i]));  \/\/ \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\n  }\n}\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4fee\u6b63\u306e\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387 <code>p_c[i]<\/code> \u3092\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u3068\u3057\u3066\u63a8\u5b9a<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>p_c[i] ~ beta(1, 1);<\/code> \u3067 <strong>\u4e00\u69d8\u306a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03<\/strong> \u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff08\u7814\u7a76\u3054\u3068\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u8003\u616e\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387 <code>p_c[i]<\/code> \u3092 <code>binomial()<\/code> \u306b\u9069\u7528<\/strong><code>rc[i] ~ binomial(nc[i], p_c[i]);<\/code>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5404\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387<\/strong> \u3092\u9069\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u56fa\u5b9a\u5024 <code>0.5<\/code> \u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u306b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u3092 <code>p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i])<\/code> \u306b<\/strong><code>rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]));<\/code>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 <code>exp(logRR[i])<\/code> \u3092\u9069\u7528<\/strong> \u3057\u3066\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u3092\u8abf\u6574<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u3053\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u306e\u30e1\u30ea\u30c3\u30c8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2705 <strong>\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u53ef\u80fd<\/strong><br>\u2705 <strong>\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u3092\u56fa\u5b9a\u5024 0.5 \u306b\u3059\u308b\u554f\u984c\u3092\u89e3\u6d88<\/strong><br>\u2705 <strong>\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306b\u9069\u3057\u305f\u67d4\u8edf\u306a\u63a8\u5b9a\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u304c\u9069\u5207\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3001\u8a66\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01\u3082\u3057\u3055\u3089\u306b\u8abf\u6574\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u3089\u3001\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u5ea6\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u4fee\u6b63\u5f8c\u306eStan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5168\u4f53\u3092\u30c0\u30d6\u30eb\u30af\u30a9\u30fc\u30c6\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u56f2\u307f\u3001\u5909\u6570stan_model_code\u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3055\u3066\u3001\u3053\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u3068stan()\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306e\u6240\u3067\u3001\u521d\u671f\u5024\u304c\u6271\u3048\u308b\u7bc4\u56f2\u5916\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u591a\u767a\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5bfe\u51e6\u3092Copilot\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u30012\u56de\u307b\u3069\u4fee\u6b63\u3092\u52a0\u3048\u3001\u5b9f\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u3068\u3060\u3063\u305f\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306eCopilot\u3068\u306e\u3084\u308a\u3068\u308a\u306f\u7701\u7565\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>#Fixed effects model with binoial distributions:\n\n# \u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\nlibrary(rstan)\n\n# \u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\nmeta_data &lt;- list(\n  N = 5,  # \u7814\u7a76\u6570\n  study = 1:5,  # \u7814\u7a76ID\n  nc = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\n  rc = c(10, 30, 20, 15, 25),  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\n  nt = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\n  rt = c(15, 40, 22, 18, 35)  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\n)\n\nstan_model_code &lt;- \"data {\n  int&lt;lower=1&gt; N;  \n  int nc&#91;N];  \n  int rc&#91;N];  \n  int nt&#91;N];  \n  int rt&#91;N];  \n}\n\nparameters {\n  real logRR&#91;N];  \/\/ \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u5024\n  real mu;        \/\/ \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\uff08\u5bfe\u6570\uff09\n  real&lt;lower=0&gt; sigma; \/\/ \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\n  real&lt;lower=0, upper=1&gt; p_c&#91;N];  \/\/ \u78ba\u7387\u5024\u306e\u5236\u7d04\u3092\u8ffd\u52a0\n}\n\nmodel {\n  # \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n  mu ~ normal(0, 10);\n  sigma ~ cauchy(0, 2);\n  \n  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u30d9\u30fc\u30bf\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\n  for (i in 1:N) {\n    p_c&#91;i] ~ beta(1, 1);  \/\/ \u4e00\u69d8\u306a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n    logRR&#91;i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);\n    rc&#91;i] ~ binomial(nc&#91;i], p_c&#91;i]);  \/\/ \u4fee\u6b63\n    rt&#91;i] ~ binomial(nt&#91;i], fmin(p_c&#91;i] * exp(logRR&#91;i]), 1));  \/\/ \u6700\u5927\u5024\u30921\u306b\u5236\u9650 \n  }\n}\"\n\nrt&#91;i] ~ binomial(nt&#91;i], p_c&#91;i] * exp(logRR&#91;i]));  \/\/ \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\n\nN=meta_data$N\ninit_values &lt;- function() {\n  list(mu = 0, sigma = 1, logRR = rep(0, N), p_c = rep(0.1, N)) # \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\n}\n\n# Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3068\u5b9f\u884c\nfit &lt;- stan(model_code = stan_model_code, data = meta_data, init = init_values, iter = 2000, chains = 4)\n\n# \u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u62bd\u51fa\nposterior_samples &lt;- extract(fit)\nmu_samples &lt;- posterior_samples$mu\n\n# \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 (exp(mu)) \u3068 95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nrisk_ratio &lt;- exp(mean(mu_samples))\nconf_int &lt;- exp(quantile(mu_samples, probs = c(0.025, 0.975)))\n\n# \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u8868\u793a\ncat(\"\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4:\", risk_ratio, \"\\n\")\ncat(\"95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593:\", conf_int&#91;1], \"-\", conf_int&#91;2], \"\\n\")\n\n######<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>Copilot\u304c\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u305f\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306fFixed effects model\u3060\u3068\u8a18\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001model\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068logRR[i] ~ normal(mu, sigma)\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3001\u5404\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u81ea\u7136\u5bfe\u6570\u3092\u5e73\u5747\u5024mu\u3001\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5deesigma\u306e\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306fRandom effects model\u306e\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001stan_model_code\u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3055\u308c\u308bmodel\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u3042\u308brt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], fmin(p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]), 1));\u304c\u305d\u306e\u4e0b\u306b\u91cd\u8907\u3057\u3066\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u9593\u9055\u3044\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001Copilot\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">\u3053\u308c\u306fStan, rstan\u3067\u30da\u30a2\u6bd4\u8f03\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306eR\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u3053\u308c\u306fFixed effects model\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304fRandom effects model\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002 \u30c0\u30d6\u30eb\u30af\u30a9\u30fc\u30c6\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u56f2\u3063\u305fmodel\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u306e\u5f8c\u306e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u304b\uff1f rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i])); \/\/ \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4<br>\uff1c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u30b3\u30d4\u30fc\uff1e<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u3053\u306eStan\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306f<strong>Random effects model<\/strong>\u306b\u8a72\u5f53\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7406\u7531\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u70b9\u304c\u6319\u3052\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>logRR[i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);<\/code> \u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3067\u3001\u5404\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 <code>logRR[i]<\/code> \u304c<strong>\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u5e73\u5747 <code>mu<\/code> \u3068\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d <code>sigma<\/code> \u306b\u5f93\u3046\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u751f\u6210\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/strong>\u305f\u3081\u3001\u500b\u3005\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u304c<strong>\u7570\u306a\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/strong>\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306fRandom effects model\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fixed effects model\u3067\u306f\u3001<code>logRR[i]<\/code> \u306f\u5404\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u56fa\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5024\u3092\u6301\u3064\u3079\u304d\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066<strong>\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u5909\u52d5<\/strong>\u3092\u8a31\u5bb9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001Random effects model\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b21\u306b\u3001<code>rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]));<\/code> \u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f<strong>\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u767a\u751f\u6570 <code>rt[i]<\/code> \u3092\u78ba\u7387 <code>p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i])<\/code> \u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u4e8c\u9805\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u751f\u6210\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/strong>\u51e6\u7406\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306f\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001<strong>\u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u3092\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u3059\u308b\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u5f0f<\/strong>\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001<code>p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i])<\/code> \u304c1\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5f8c\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u3067\u306f <code>fmin(p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]), 1)<\/code> \u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3066<strong>\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4e0a\u9650\u30921\u306b\u5236\u9650<\/strong>\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u4fee\u6b63\u306f\u9069\u5207\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6570\u5024\u7684\u306a\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u3055\u3092\u9632\u3050\u305f\u3081\u306b\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3082\u3057Fixed effects model\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001<code>logRR[i]<\/code> \u3092\u5909\u6570\u3068\u3057\u3066\u500b\u5225\u306b\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001<strong>\u5168\u3066\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u5171\u901a\u306e <code>logRR<\/code> \u3092\u56fa\u5b9a\u3059\u308b<\/strong>\u5f62\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u63db\u3048\u308b\u3068\u826f\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001<code>logRR[i] ~ normal(mu, 0.001);<\/code> \u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b <code>sigma<\/code> \u3092\u307b\u307c\u30bc\u30ed\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u5909\u52d5\u3092\u6291\u3048\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f55\u304b\u4ed6\u306b\u4fee\u6b63\u70b9\u3084\u7591\u554f\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u304a\u6c17\u8efd\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3084\u306f\u308aRandom effects model\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001Fixed effects model\u306b\u3057\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306elogRR[i]\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], fmin(p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]), 1));\u306e\u91cd\u8907\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3068\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u5ea6\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">stan_model_code\u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3055\u308c\u308b\u201d\u201d\u5185\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306brt[i] ~binomial(nt[i], fmin(p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]), 1)); \/\/ \u6700\u5927\u5024\u30921\u306b\u5236\u9650\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u4e0b\u306b\u3042\u308b\u540c\u69d8\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306f\u4e0d\u8981\u3067\u306f\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3059\uff01<code>stan_model_code<\/code> \u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3055\u308c\u308bStan\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u5185\u3067\u3001<strong><code>rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], fmin(p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]), 1));<\/code> \u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u304c\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001 \u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306e <code>rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]));<\/code> \u306f\u4e0d\u8981\u3067\u3059<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u91cd\u8907\u3057\u305f\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u524a\u9664\u3057\u3066\u3082\u554f\u984c\u306a\u304f\u52d5\u4f5c\u3059\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3057\u3001\u4f59\u8a08\u306a\u8a18\u8ff0\u304c\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u53ef\u8aad\u6027\u3082\u5411\u4e0a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7279\u306b\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u5024\u306e\u4e0a\u9650\u30921\u306b\u5236\u9650\u3059\u308b\u4fee\u6b63\u304c\u3059\u3067\u306b\u9069\u7528\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5f8c\u308d\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u6b8b\u3059\u3068\u3001\u5236\u7d04\u306a\u3057\u306e\u4e8c\u9805\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u623b\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u6ce8\u610f\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u306b\u3082\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u6574\u7406\u3084\u6700\u9069\u5316\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u76f8\u8ac7\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u304a\u6c17\u8efd\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3084\u306f\u308a\u4e0d\u8981\u306e\u69d8\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306b\u306f\u521d\u671f\u5024\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u308c\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u306e\u304b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">init_values &lt;- function(){ }\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p><code>init_values &lt;- function(){ }<\/code> \u306e\u90e8\u5206\u306f<strong>\u5fc5\u9808\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093<\/strong>\u304c\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u53ce\u675f\u3092\u5b89\u5b9a\u3055\u305b\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3001Stan\u306eMCMC\uff08\u30de\u30eb\u30b3\u30d5\u9023\u9396\u30e2\u30f3\u30c6\u30ab\u30eb\u30ed\uff09\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u958b\u59cb\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306b<strong>\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081<\/strong>\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u7279\u306b\u3001Stan\u306e\u30c7\u30d5\u30a9\u30eb\u30c8\u306e\u521d\u671f\u5316\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u306a\u5024\u3092\u5272\u308a\u5f53\u3066\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u6642\u3005\u53ce\u675f\u306e\u554f\u984c\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3092\u9632\u3050\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001<code>init_values<\/code> \u3092\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3057\u3066\u9069\u5207\u306a\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3088\u308a\u30b9\u30e0\u30fc\u30ba\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u304c\u9032\u3080\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3082\u3057 <code>init_values<\/code> \u3092\u524a\u9664\u3057\u3066\u3082\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u554f\u984c\u306a\u304f\u53ce\u675f\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001\u5fc5\u9808\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u7701\u7565\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3088\u308a\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u3092\u5f97\u305f\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306a\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u306b\u3082\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u78ba\u304b\u306b\u3001\u521d\u671f\u5024\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306f\u5fc5\u9808\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6642\u306bMCMC\u304c\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u554f\u984c\u3092\u907f\u3051\u308b\u305f\u3081\u9069\u5207\u306a\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u4f8b\u3067\u306f\u3001mu\u306b0\u3001sigma\u306b1\u3001logRR\u306bN\u500b\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3059\u3079\u30660\u3001p_c\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u306bN\u500b\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306b0.1\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u307b\u304b\u30b9\u30da\u30eb\u30df\u30b9\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3089\u3082\u542b\u3081\u3066\u4fee\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u66f8\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3089\u3044\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u3001Random effects model\u306b\u4fee\u6b63\u3001binoial distributions\u3092binomial distributions\u306b\u4fee\u6b63\u3001\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u91cd\u8907\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u524a\u9664\u3057\u305f\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u66f8\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p>\u4e86\u89e3\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\uff01\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u306f\u3001<strong>Random effects model \u306b\u4fee\u6b63\u3057<\/strong>\u3001<strong>binomial distributions \u306e\u30b9\u30da\u30eb\u30df\u30b9\u3092\u4fee\u6b63\u3057<\/strong>\u3001<strong>\u91cd\u8907\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u524a\u9664<\/strong>\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code># \u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\nlibrary(rstan)\n\n# \u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\nmeta_data &lt;- list(\n  N = 5,  # \u7814\u7a76\u6570\n  study = 1:5,  # \u7814\u7a76ID\n  nc = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\n  rc = c(10, 30, 20, 15, 25),  # \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\n  nt = c(100, 200, 150, 120, 250),  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u75c7\u4f8b\u6570\n  rt = c(15, 40, 22, 18, 35)  # \u4ecb\u5165\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u6570\n)\n\nstan_model_code &lt;- \"data {\n  int&lt;lower=1&gt; N;  \n  int nc&#91;N];  \n  int rc&#91;N];  \n  int nt&#91;N];  \n  int rt&#91;N];  \n}\n\nparameters {\n  real logRR&#91;N];  \/\/ \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u5024\n  real mu;        \/\/ \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\uff08\u5bfe\u6570\uff09\n  real&lt;lower=0&gt; sigma; \/\/ \u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\n  real&lt;lower=0, upper=1&gt; p_c&#91;N];  \/\/ \u78ba\u7387\u5024\u306e\u5236\u7d04\u3092\u8ffd\u52a0\n}\n\nmodel {\n  \/\/ \u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n  mu ~ normal(0, 10);\n  sigma ~ cauchy(0, 2);\n  \n  \/\/ \u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u30d9\u30fc\u30bf\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\n  for (i in 1:N) {\n    p_c&#91;i] ~ beta(1, 1);  \/\/ \u4e00\u69d8\u306a\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\n    logRR&#91;i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);\n    rc&#91;i] ~ binomial(nc&#91;i], p_c&#91;i]);  \/\/ \u4fee\u6b63\n    rt&#91;i] ~ binomial(nt&#91;i], fmin(p_c&#91;i] * exp(logRR&#91;i]), 1));  \/\/ \u6700\u5927\u5024\u30921\u306b\u5236\u9650 \n  }\n}\" \n\nN &lt;- meta_data$N\ninit_values &lt;- function() {\n  list(mu = 0, sigma = 1, logRR = rep(0, N), p_c = rep(0.1, N))  # \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u521d\u671f\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\n}\n\n# Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3068\u5b9f\u884c\nfit &lt;- stan(model_code = stan_model_code, data = meta_data, init = init_values, iter = 2000, chains = 4)\n\n# \u63a8\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u62bd\u51fa\nposterior_samples &lt;- extract(fit)\nmu_samples &lt;- posterior_samples$mu\n\n# \u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4 (exp(mu)) \u3068 95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\nrisk_ratio &lt;- exp(mean(mu_samples))\nconf_int &lt;- exp(quantile(mu_samples, probs = c(0.025, 0.975)))\n\n# \u7d50\u679c\u306e\u8868\u793a\ncat(\"\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4:\", risk_ratio, \"\\n\")\ncat(\"95% \u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593:\", conf_int&#91;1], \"-\", conf_int&#91;2], \"\\n\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u306a\u4fee\u6b63\u70b9:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092 Random effects model \u306b\u5909\u66f4<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>logRR[i] ~ normal(mu, sigma);<\/code> \u3092\u7dad\u6301\u3057\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u3070\u3089\u3064\u304d\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30b9\u30da\u30eb\u30df\u30b9\u306e\u4fee\u6b63<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>binoial distributions<\/code> \u2192 <code>binomial distributions<\/code> \u306b\u4fee\u6b63\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u91cd\u8907\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u524a\u9664<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>rt[i] ~ binomial(nt[i], p_c[i] * exp(logRR[i]));<\/code> \u306e\u4e0d\u8981\u306a\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u524a\u9664\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3067\u3001\u4fee\u6b63\u70b9\u3092\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u305f<strong>\u9069\u5207\u306a Random effects model<\/strong> \u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff01<br>\u3082\u3057\u8ffd\u52a0\u306e\u8abf\u6574\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u304a\u6c17\u8efd\u306b\u3054\u76f8\u8ac7\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092R\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"792\" height=\"313\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1746\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15.png 792w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15-768x304.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306f\u9593\u9055\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u898b\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001# Stan\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u3068\u5b9f\u884c\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308astan()\u95a2\u6570\u3067MCMC\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u306b\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u6570\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u305f\u3081\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3084\u4e2d\u592e\u5024\u306f\u4fe1\u983c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b66\u544a\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"118\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-16-1024x118.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1747\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-16-1024x118.png 1024w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-16-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-16-768x89.png 768w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-16-1200x139.png 1200w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-16.png 1308w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>4000\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3067\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3082\u3063\u3068\u591a\u304f\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u306fiter 2000, chains 4\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3092\u5927\u304d\u304f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u5bfe\u51e6\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002Warmup\u306e\u56de\u6570\u3082\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092Copilot\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">stan()\u95a2\u6570\u3067warmup\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306f\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p><code>stan()<\/code> \u95a2\u6570\u3067\u306f\u3001<code>warmup<\/code> \u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3092 <code>iter<\/code> \u3068\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<code>warmup<\/code> \u306fMCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3067\u3001\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u306e\u521d\u671f\u5316\u304c\u7d42\u308f\u3063\u305f\u5f8c\u306b<strong>\u9069\u5207\u306a\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u5230\u9054\u3059\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u8a66\u884c<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u3001<code>warmup<\/code> \u671f\u9593\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306f\u89e3\u6790\u306b\u306f\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u305a\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u53ce\u675f\u3092\u52a9\u3051\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306e\u307f\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><code>warmup<\/code> \u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u65b9\u6cd5:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>fit &lt;- stan(\n  model_code = stan_model_code, \n  data = meta_data, \n  init = init_values, \n  iter = 2000,  # \u7dcf\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u56de\u6570\n  warmup = 500,  # \u30a6\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u671f\u9593\uff08\u521d\u671f\u306e500\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3092\u7834\u68c4\uff09\n  chains = 4  # \u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u6570\n)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u4f8b\u3067\u306f <code>iter = 2000<\/code> \u3067\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u884c\u3044\u3001\u6700\u521d\u306e <code>500<\/code> \u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb (<code>warmup = 500<\/code>) \u306f\u30a6\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6271\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u3001<code>warmup<\/code> \u306e\u5024\u306f <strong>\u5168\u4f53\u306e <code>iter<\/code> \u306e 25\uff5e50% \u7a0b\u5ea6\u306b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u63a8\u5968<\/strong> \u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6ce8\u610f\u70b9:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>warmup<\/code> \u3092\u9069\u5207\u306b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u53ce\u675f\u306e\u8cea\u304c\u5411\u4e0a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>warmup<\/code> \u304c\u77ed\u3059\u304e\u308b\u3068\u3001\u53ce\u675f\u304c\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3001\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306e\u3042\u308b\u63a8\u5b9a\u306b\u306a\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>warmup<\/code> \u304c\u9577\u3059\u304e\u308b\u3068\u8a08\u7b97\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u5897\u3048\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306a\u5024\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u6700\u9069\u5316\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u9069\u306a <code>warmup<\/code> \u306e\u5024\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5909\u308f\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30b9\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8 (<code>traceplot(fit)<\/code>) \u306a\u3069\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306a\u9577\u3055\u3092\u9078\u3076\u306e\u304c\u3088\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8a66\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3066\u3001\u3082\u3057\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306f <code>warmup<\/code> \u306e\u5024\u3092\u8abf\u6574\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u6700\u9069\u5316\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u30aa\u30b9\u30b9\u30e1\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4f55\u304b\u4ed6\u306b\u8abf\u6574\u3057\u305f\u3044\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>Warmup\u306f\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u56de\u6570\u306e25\uff5e50\uff05\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u63a8\u5968\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001iter = 40000, warmup =20000, chains =5\u3067100000\u500b\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002stan()\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u69d8\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u63db\u3048\u3001 \u3082\u3046\u4e00\u5ea6\u3053\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>fit &lt;- stan(model_code = stan_model_code, data = meta_data, init = init_values, iter = 40000, warmup = 20000, chains = 5)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eca\u5ea6\u306fBulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8b66\u544a\u306f\u51fa\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"817\" height=\"316\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-17.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1748\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-17.png 817w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-17-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-17-768x297.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>############################################<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u3053\u308c\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u6d3e\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092R\u306emeta\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"919\" height=\"766\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1728\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-11.png 919w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-11-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-11-768x640.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306f\u307b\u307c\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3001\u5c0f\u6570\u70b9\u4ee5\u4e0b1\u6841\u307e\u3067\u30011.2\u3067\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3059\u304c\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u6841\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u300295%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u5024\u306f\u3001Stan\u306e\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u65b9\u306f0.8854134~1.744159\u3001meta\u306e\u983b\u5ea6\u8ad6\u6d3e\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u65b9\u306f1.0196~1.6540\u3067\u524d\u8005\u306e\u65b9\u304c\u5e45\u304c\u5e83\u3081\u3067\u3059\u3002R\u306e\u30d1\u30c3\u30b1\u30fc\u30b8metafor\u3067\u3082\u3084\u3063\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001meta\u3068\u5168\u304f\u540c\u3058\u5024\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3044\u305a\u308c\u3082\u7814\u7a76\u9593\u306e\u5206\u6563\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u306b\u306fREML (restricted maximum likelihood)\u6cd5\u304c\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3055\u3066\u3001MCMC\u3092stan()\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5909\u6570fit\u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u3053\u304b\u3089exract(fit)\u3067\u53d6\u308a\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5024\u306f\u5909\u6570posterior_samples\u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u3092\u8abf\u3079\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001str(posterior_samples)\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"823\" height=\"457\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-18.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1749\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-18.png 823w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-18-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-18-768x426.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5909\u6570logRR, mu, sigma, p_c, lp_\u304c100000\u500b\u8a18\u9332\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u306blp_\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5909\u6570\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u304d\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3053\u308c\u304c\u4f55\u304b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-liquid-accordion\" style=\"border-color:#00aeef\"><summary class=\"liquid-accordion-top\" style=\"color:#333333;background-color:#00aeef\">posterior_samples\u306elp_\u306f\u4f55\u3067\u3059\u304b\uff1f<\/summary><div class=\"liquid-accordion-bottom\">\n<p><code>posterior_samples$lp_<\/code> \u306f\u3001Stan\u306e\u51fa\u529b\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b**\u5bfe\u6570\u4e8b\u5f8c\u78ba\u7387\uff08log posterior probability\uff09**\u306e\u5024\u3092\u6307\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306eMCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5404\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u3067**\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u78ba\u7387\uff08log probability\uff09**\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c <code>lp_<\/code> \u3068\u3044\u3046\u5909\u6570\u3068\u3057\u3066\u51fa\u529b\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u610f\u5473:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>lp_<\/code> \u306f\u3001MCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3054\u3068\u306e**\u5bfe\u6570\u78ba\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff08log probability density\uff09**\u3092\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u5024\u304c<strong>\u3088\u308a\u9ad8\u3044<\/strong>\u307b\u3069\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u300c\u3088\u308a\u9069\u5408\u3057\u305f\u72b6\u614b\u300d\u3092\u793a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>traceplot(fit, pars = \"lp_\")<\/code> \u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001<code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u6319\u52d5\u3092\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3057\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u53ce\u675f\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53ce\u675f\u8a3a\u65ad<\/strong><br><code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u5024\u304c<strong>\u4e00\u5b9a\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u3067\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/strong>\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001MCMC\u306e\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u304c\u9069\u5207\u306b\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u6bd4\u8f03<\/strong><br>\u7570\u306a\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u969b\u306b\u3001<code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3069\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u304b\u8a55\u4fa1\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7570\u5e38\u5024\u306e\u691c\u51fa<\/strong><br><code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u5024\u304c\u6975\u7aef\u306b\u4f4e\u3044\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7570\u5e38\u306a\u72b6\u614b\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u9069\u5207\u306b\u30d5\u30a3\u30eb\u30bf\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306e\u51fa\u529b\u3067 <code>lp_<\/code> \u306e\u5909\u52d5\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3059\u304e\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u53ce\u675f\u304c\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u306a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30a6\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u9577\u3055 (<code>warmup<\/code>) \u3084\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u8abf\u6574\u3059\u308b\u3068\u826f\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3082\u3057\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u6d3b\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u6c17\u8efd\u306b\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff01<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n\n\n\n<p>Stan\u306eMCMC\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5404\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u3067**\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5bfe\u6570\u78ba\u7387\uff08log probability\uff09**\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c <code>lp_<\/code> \u3068\u3044\u3046\u5909\u6570\u3068\u3057\u3066\u51fa\u529b\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3068\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u53ce\u675f\u8a3a\u65ad\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u6bd4\u8f03\u3001\u7570\u5e38\u5024\u306e\u691c\u51fa\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3068\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>##############<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eca\u56de\u3082Copilot\u306e\u56de\u7b54\u306f\u9593\u9055\u3044\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3067\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002Stan\u3092rstan\u3067\u52d5\u4f5c\u3055\u305b\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001Rtools\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u306e\u306b\u305d\u308c\u306b\u8a00\u53ca\u3057\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3001model\u306f\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5909\u6570\u306b\u683c\u7d0d\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u7121\u8996\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3001\u52b9\u679c\u6307\u6a19\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u306b\u3082\u304b\u304b\u308f\u3089\u305a\u3001\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u306e\u4f8b\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3001\u5bfe\u7167\u7fa4\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u7387\u3092\u56fa\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3069\u306e\u554f\u984c\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9593\u9055\u3044\u3084\u554f\u984c\u306f\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306bR\u3067\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u4fee\u6b63\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u5206\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002Stan, rstan\u306f\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u521d\u3081\u3066\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3001Stan\u3001rstan\u306e\u30de\u30cb\u30e5\u30a2\u30eb\u3084\u95a2\u9023\u3057\u305f\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u307e\u306a\u304f\u3066\u3082\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u3084\u306f\u308a\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copilot\u3068\u4f55\u56de\u304b\u3084\u308a\u3068\u308a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3046\u3061\u306b\u3001Stan\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u8a18\u8ff0\u6cd5\u304c\u4f55\u3068\u306a\u304f\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>data\u30d6\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u306f\u3001\u89e3\u6790\u5bfe\u8c61\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u5909\u6570\u306e\u5c5e\u6027\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>transformed data\u30d6\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5404\u5909\u6570\u9593\u306e\u6f14\u7b97\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>parameters\u30d6\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u306f\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u306a\u3069\u306e\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u5024\u306e\u5909\u6570\u306e\u5c5e\u6027\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>model\u30d6\u30ed\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3068\u3001\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MCMC\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306fstan()\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u884c\u3044\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3001\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u56de\u6570\u3068\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u56de\u6570\u3092\u6307\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3002\uff08\u3053\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u306b\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u6642\u9593\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308b\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7d50\u679c\u306fstan()\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u683c\u7d0d\u3057\u305f\u5909\u6570\u304b\u3089extract()\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001posterior_samples\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5909\u6570\u306b\u53d6\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u5909\u6570\u540d\u3092$\u3067\u7d50\u5408\u3057\u3066\u500b\u5225\u306b\u53d6\u308a\u51fa\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u500b\u5225\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001R\u306e\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u7d71\u8a08\u5024\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>R, Stan, brms\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u60c5\u5831\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306fCopilot\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3069\u3053\u307e\u3067\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u30c6\u30fc\u30de\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306f\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3067\u3084\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\uff1a<br>Stan Development Team\u306e<a href=\"https:\/\/mc-stan.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Stan: Software for Bayesian Data Analysis<\/a>\u304a\u3088\u3073<a href=\"https:\/\/mc-stan.org\/rstan\/articles\/rstan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">RSstan: the R interface to Stan<\/a><br>Matti Vuorre\u6c0f\u306eMatti&#8217;s homepage <a href=\"https:\/\/vuorre.com\/posts\/2016-09-29-bayesian-meta-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bayesian Meta-Analysis with R, Stan, and brms<\/a>: Meta-analysis is a special case of Bayesian multilevel modeling<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u3082\u4f55\u3068\u304b\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u304c\u5b9f\u884c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u59a5\u5f53\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af\u306f\u4ed6\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u3082\u8a66\u3059\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3057\u3001\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u30d5\u30a9\u30ec\u30b9\u30c8\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u306b\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u51fa\u7248\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306e\u30c1\u30a7\u30c3\u30af\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3084\u308b\u304b\u3001\u306a\u3069\u8ab2\u984c\u306f\u6b8b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u6bd4\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u5dee\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u5dee\u3001\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u5dee\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3084\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3078\u306e\u62e1\u5f35\u306a\u3069\u3082\u8ab2\u984c\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8ffd\u8a18\uff1a<br>Warn DE\u3089\u306e\u8ad6\u6587\u3067\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u52b9\u679c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306eWinBUGS\u7528\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3001\u540c\u3058\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3067OpenBUGS\u3067\u5206\u6790\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3001RR\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306bStan\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3068\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3057\u305f\u5024\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"474\" src=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-1024x474.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1759\" srcset=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-1024x474.png 1024w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-768x355.png 768w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-1536x711.png 1536w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-2048x947.png 2048w, https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-19-1200x555.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u6bd4\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u5024\u306f1.246 (95% CI 0.8901\uff5e1.731)\u3067\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u3061\u3089\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3084\u306f\u308a\u4e8c\u9805\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u4eca\u56de\u306eStan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUGS\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u66f8\u304d\u65b9\u306fStan\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002BUGS\u3067\u306f\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u6307\u5b9a\u306b\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff08\u5206\u6563\u306e\u9006\u6570\uff09\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001Stan\u306f\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u51e6\u7406\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001RR\u3092logRR\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u5909\u6570delt\u3092\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3001RR\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3082\u8a18\u9332\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002Stan\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u65b9\u3067\u306fRR\u306f\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306f\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3067\u3001logRR\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u5f8c\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001rc\u3001rt\u3092\u4e8c\u9805\u5206\u5e03\u304b\u3089\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u5171\u901a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUGS\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092Stan\u7528\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u63db\u3048\u308b\u306e\u3082\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u8ab2\u984c\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3082\u3057Copilot\u3084Gemini\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u5909\u63db\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u3068\u697d\u3067\u826f\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Warn DE, Thompson SG, Spiegelhalter DJ: Bayesian random effects meta-analysis of trials with binary outcomes: methods for the absolute risk difference and relative risk scales. Stat Med 2002;21:1601-23. doi: 10.1002\/sim.1189 PMID: 12111922<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Copilot\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30d7\u30c8\u3084\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u66f8\u3051\u308b\u304b\u8a66\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7d71\u8a08\u89e3\u6790\u306f\u3001OpenBUGS\u3084JAGS\u3067Markov Chain  &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/?p=1710\" class=\"more-link\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Stan\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u30d9\u30a4\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\u30a2\u30d7\u30ed\u30fc\u30c1\u306e\u30e1\u30bf\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b7\u30b9\uff1aCopilot\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089&#8221; \u306e<\/span>\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistics","category-sr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1710"}],"version-history":[{"count":38,"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1710\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1770,"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1710\/revisions\/1770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/info.zanet.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}